Conditional Markets Viewer

Correlation Betting

Bet on correlation between A and B while maintaining market-neutral exposure to each marginal (for small trades). Long correlation profits if both happen or neither; short profits on mixed outcomes.

Direction:

Max Shares:

Position (YES shares)

Trade Plan (lowest prob first)

Total Cost: --

E[profit] at post-trade prices: --

Neutrality Check

E[payout | A]: --

E[payout | ~A]: --

E[payout | B]: --

E[payout | ~B]: --

Conditional Markets Viewer

Bet on Cell

Trade Plan

Derived Statistics

Correlation Betting

Position (YES shares)

Trade Plan (lowest prob first)

Neutrality Check

Profit by Belief (diagonal probability shift)

Conditional Bet

Hedge Strategy Preview

Expected Payouts

Bet Result

Configure Market